Vietnam Macro Update – August 2026 and Key Highlights

Key highlights:

• Industrial production remained the economy’s key growth engine. In August, the industrial production index (IIP) rose 4% YoY, sustaining strong momentum and bringing 8M26 IIP growth to 11.9% YoY, reflecting robust expansion in manufacturing and demand for export-oriented production. Manufacturing alone grew 14.6% YoY in August and 12.5% YoY in 8M26, remaining the main driver of industrial growth.
• Domestic consumption continued to improve, reflecting resilient domestic demand. Retail sales of goods and consumer services rose 9% YoY in August, taking 8M26 growth to 13.3% YoY; excluding price effects, real growth reached 7.6%, indicating that domestic demand continued to recover and contributed positively to economic growth.
• International trade continued to expand strongly, while pressure from the trade balance eased in August. In 8M26, exports reached approximately USD 374.8 bn, up 4% YoY, while imports reached about USD 395.3 bn, up 35.3% YoY, resulting in a trade deficit of around USD 20.46 bn. In August alone, exports reached USD 54.8 bn (+26.0% YoY) and imports USD 54.9 bn (+37.9% YoY), narrowing the monthly trade deficit to just USD 0.12 bn, a marked improvement from USD 3.59 bn in July. This reflects continued strong demand for imported raw materials, machinery, and production inputs as manufacturing and investment activity expands.
• Registered FDI continued to grow strongly, with cumulative registered FDI in 8M26 reaching USD 40.63 bn, up 55.4% YoY, while disbursed FDI reached USD 17.25 bn, up 12.0% YoY. The trend continues to reflect foreign investors’ confidence in Vietnam’s long-term growth outlook, investment environment, and position in global supply chains.
• Inflation remained under control, but price pressures are increasing. August CPI rose 89% YoY, above 4.45% in July, while 8M26 average CPI increased 4.45% YoY and core inflation 4.24%. The overall price level therefore remains close to the Government’s inflation target of around 4.5%, but the policy buffer for controlling inflation in the final months of the year is narrowing.

Public investment continued to accelerate in August. In 8M26, disbursement from the State budget reached around VND 546.8 tn, equivalent to 50.5% of the annual plan and up 18.5% YoY, improving from 39.0% of the plan after seven months. Disbursement has accelerated as the Government continues to push implementation of key infrastructure projects to support its high-growth target for 2026.