Vietnam Macro Update – September & 9M2026

EN-GTHTSVN_Macro-Report_Vietnam-Macro-Statistics-Key-highlights-Sep-2026_16.10.2026_-1.pdf

Key highlights:

With three-quarters of 2026 now behind us, Vietnam’s economy has remained resilient despite multiple domestic and external macroeconomic headwinds. GDP growth accelerated sharply to 9.95% YoY in Q3, higher than in both Q1 and Q2, indicating that the economy is gaining momentum and building a solid foundation for the next phase of growth. In 9M2026, Vietnam’s GDP expanded by 9.01% YoY. To achieve the full-year growth target of 10%, Q4 GDP would need to grow by approximately 12.4%—a significant challenge amid the numerous headwinds currently facing the economy.

From a policy perspective, monetary and fiscal policies continued to be implemented flexibly to support growth. The exchange rate and overall interest-rate environment remained relatively stable, while the banking system gradually strengthened its resilience. Inflation was kept within the target range despite pressure from higher oil prices and the risk of supply-chain disruptions. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issued Circular 50/2026/TT-NHNN, adjusting a number of prudential indicators and safety ratios with the aim of enhancing transparency and strengthening the domestic financial system, while still preserving room to support economic development.

With the macroeconomic foundation and key growth drivers strengthened over the first nine months of the year, we expect Vietnam’s economy to continue accelerating in Q4, moving closer to its 2026 growth target while creating momentum for 2027. On this basis, we revise our 2026 GDP growth forecast upward to 9.2%, reflecting a more positive economic outlook, although achieving the 10% growth target would still require a substantial acceleration in the final months of the year.