Banking Sector Outlook 2025 In 2025, the banking sector will face a challenging macroeconomic environment, presenting both opportunities and risks. On the positive side, credit growth is expected to remain robust, particularly in key segments, supporting banks’ net interest income growth. Additionally, non-interest income is anticipated to stay stable, driven by accelerated digital transformation and the expansion of non-credit business activities. However, the sector will also encounter several critical risks, including short-term system liquidity shortages and pressures from rising policy rates and exchange rate fluctuations, which could increase funding costs. Unresolved non-performing loans (NPLs) may continue to weigh on banks’ financial performance in the short term, posing additional challenges to maintaining safety ratios and building buffers for sustainable growth. For 2025, we classify our stock recommendations into three main investment themes: Banks with a solid fundamental foundation and high CASA ratios: MBB, TCB. Safe banks with strong capital buffers and rapid NPL reduction: CTG, VCB, ACB. Banks with high growth potential and active digital transformation: VPB.