BUSINESS UPDATES

According to VNM’s 1H26 business results, revenue reached VND 34,996 billion (+17.8% YoY), driven by 12.4% growth in domestic revenue and 39.1% growth in exports. The recovery was supported by portfolio-wide price increases, improving consumer demand, premiumization of the product portfolio, and growth across international markets. Gross profit margin (GPM) increased by 200 bps in 1H26, supported by cost control and advance procurement pricing for WMP, SMP, and sugar secured 3–6 months ahead.

VNM offers an attractive dividend policy backed by a sound financial position. According to disclosed information, VNM paid total cash dividends of VND 4,350/share for FY2025, equivalent to 43.5% of par value. Of this amount, VND 2,500/share was paid in advance in 2025, while the remaining VND 1,850/share was paid on July 17, 2026. As of June 30, 2026, cash and short-term financial investments amounted to VND 26,503 billion, equivalent to 46.1% of total assets, while outstanding borrowings stood at approximately VND 8,455 billion, providing a solid foundation for dividends and investment.

Attractive valuation: VNM is trading at a P/E of 11.5x and a P/B of 3.95x, significantly below its historical three-year and five-year averages, respectively. We apply a target P/E of 12.0x, alongside the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, to determine fair value.

We forecast FY2026 revenue of VND 66,951 billion (+5.2%) and gross profit of VND 27,822 billion (+6.2%), implying a GPM of 41.6%.

Key risks: A rebound in raw material prices and exchange rates, elevated advertising and promotion (A&P) expenses in 2H26, limited domestic growth, intensifying competition, and policy changes from 2027 onward.

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