GTHTSVN-RS_August-Strategy-Report_Ahead-of-the-Market-Upgrade_Aug-21-2026.pdf

FTSE UPGRADE OUTLOOK AND IMPACT ON CAPITAL FLOWS INTO VIETNAM’S STOCK MARKET

On 21 August, FTSE Russell announced the results of its September 2026 semi-annual review of the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (GEIS) for the Asia-Pacific region, against the backdrop of Vietnam’s market being officially upgraded from Frontier Market to Secondary Emerging Market on 21 September. This marks an important milestone in the integration of Vietnam’s stock market into the global capital market system.

Based on our current estimates, passive inflows into Vietnam could reach approximately US$1.3-1.5 billion over the full process of Vietnam’s inclusion in FTSE Emerging, but only around US$150 million in the first tranche in September 2026, equivalent to a 10% weight. Meanwhile, the scale of outflows from Frontier funds is considerably more uncertain, as not all Frontier funds use FTSE Frontier as their benchmark. We therefore estimate that Frontier-related rebalancing flows could range from US$100-700 million, depending on the actual sell-through rate. As a result, the net flow impact in September 2026 is unlikely to be substantial and could range from a modest net outflow to a moderate net inflow. The more important impact should unfold over the following 12-24 months as the remaining FTSE Emerging weight is implemented and active Emerging Market funds begin to increase allocations to Vietnam.

Over the long term, we believe the greatest value of the upgrade does not lie in the approximately US$1.5 billion of passive inflows, but rather in the significant expansion of the international institutional investor base, stronger visibility for Vietnam on the global investment map, and greater impetus for structural reforms in Vietnam’s stock market.

From an equity investment perspective, according to the FTSE list announced on 21 August, 27 Vietnamese stocks were announced for inclusion in the FTSE All-Cap, an index covering Large Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap stocks. VCB, VHM and VIC are expected to receive the largest allocations (Appendix 1). These stocks also have the greatest impact on the VN-Index and are expected to provide meaningful support to the index in late 2026-2027. In addition, the securities sector, which plays an important supporting role in institutional investors’ trading activities, is also expected to be a major beneficiary of Vietnam’s stock-market upgrade.