(EN) GTJASVN_TCB Equity Report_1H.25 Result Update_23.07.2025

KEY HIGHLIGHS Total credit outstanding, including corporate bonds, reached VND 759 trillion—an 11.29% year to date increase. By segment, corporate lending expanded 13.57% ytd, while retail lending grew 11.27% ytd. Despite this robust credit growth, Techcombank’s profitability has softened: profit before tax (PBT) for 1H fell 3% year on year. Net interest income (NII) continues to come under pressure from intensified competition, and the net interest margin (NIM) now hovers at approximately 3.7–3.8%, down from over 4% in 2024 In Q2, the gross non performing loan ratio inched up marginally to 1.32%, driven by increased problem loan classifications reported to the Credit Information Center among corporate clients; however, the core NPL ratio remained stable at 1.05%. The cost of credit declined sharply to 0.6%, while other key prudential metrics—namely the capital adequacy ratio and short term liquidity coverage—continued to comfortably exceed regulatory requirements. We expect Techcombank to sustain its credit growth momentum in H2 2025, underpinned by a recovering real estate cycle, and forecast full year loan growth of approximately 18%. Conversely, we anticipate the net interest margin to remain largely flat at around 3.8%, constraining any near term expansion in net interest income. Under these assumptions, we project net interest income of VND 20.5 trillion in H2 2025—up 17% y/y—while non interest income will be supported by investment banking and FX operations and bancassurance initiatives, albeit tempered by higher operating expenses. Overall, we estimate pre tax profit of roughly VND 31.5 trillion, in line with the bank’s 2025 target.