GTJASVN_Real estate Sector Report_Sector is facing crisis_30Nov2022

Research Center

05/12/2022

Key Highlight

Launched and sold units in Hanoi market were better compared to last year figure due to strict Covid-19 measure last year (+5% YoY and +22% YoY). Not many developers bring in new supply to the market and presale shrink significantly from the last quarter.
In HCMC, supply added total of 2,851 units in Q3, down – 80% QoQ and up 49% YoY. Sold unit faced similar upward, with more than 6,726 units, +325% YoY and down -36% QoQ.
The credit growth of real estate sector was at 16% ytd, higher than total credit growth at 11% ytd.
Credit to the sector has been limited to avoid asset bubble.

Comment

Per our view, the pessimism and risk off attitude will continue and be more serious next year due to interest rate continue to hike; land price continue to collapse; developer who need cash will liquidate their asset and inventory; investor and home buyer will be reluctant to hold their asset due to higher interest expenses when interest grace period end; global economy come into recession, affect the income.

We remain Neutral for residential property sector.

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