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GTJASVN_Real estate Sector Report_Sector is facing crisis_30Nov2022

05/12/2022

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Key Highlight

  • Launched and sold units in Hanoi market were better compared to last year figure due to strict Covid-19 measure last year (+5% YoY and +22% YoY). Not many developers bring in new supply to the market and presale shrink significantly from the last quarter.
  • In HCMC, supply added total of 2,851 units in Q3, down – 80% QoQ and up 49% YoY. Sold unit faced similar upward, with more than 6,726 units, +325% YoY and down -36% QoQ.
  • The credit growth of real estate sector was at 16% ytd, higher than total credit growth at 11% ytd.
  •  Credit to the sector has been limited to avoid asset bubble.

Comment

  • Per our view, the pessimism and risk off attitude will continue and be more serious next year due to interest rate continue to hike; land price continue to collapse; developer who need cash will liquidate their asset and inventory; investor and home buyer will be reluctant to hold their asset due to higher interest expenses when interest grace period end; global economy come into recession, affect the income.

We remain Neutral for residential property sector.

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