{"id":38767,"date":"2026-10-13T19:49:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T12:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gtht.com.vn\/?post_type=research&#038;p=38767"},"modified":"2026-10-16T14:23:27","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T07:23:27","slug":"en-gthtvn-rs-vnm-equity-report-_defensive-stock-with-an-attractive-dividend-yield-_tp59000_oct-132026","status":"publish","type":"research","link":"https:\/\/gtht.com.vn\/en\/research\/en-gthtvn-rs-vnm-equity-report-_defensive-stock-with-an-attractive-dividend-yield-_tp59000_oct-132026\/","title":{"rendered":"(EN) GTHTVN RS VNM Equity Report _Defensive Stock with an Attractive Dividend Yield  _TP59,000_Oct 13,2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gtht.com.vn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/EN-GTHTVN-RS-VNM-Equity-Report-_Defensive-Stock-with-an-Attractive-Dividend-Yield-_TP59000_Oct-132026.pdf\">(EN) GTHTVN RS VNM Equity Report _Defensive Stock with an Attractive Dividend Yield _TP59,000_Oct 13,2026<\/a><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif\"><strong>BUSINESS UPDATES<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif\">According to VNM\u2019s 1H26 business results, revenue reached VND 34,996 billion (+17.8% YoY), driven by 12.4% growth in domestic revenue and 39.1% growth in exports. The recovery was supported by portfolio-wide price increases, improving consumer demand, premiumization of the product portfolio, and growth across international markets. Gross profit margin (GPM) increased by 200 bps in 1H26, supported by cost control and advance procurement pricing for WMP, SMP, and sugar secured 3\u20136 months ahead.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif\">VNM offers an <strong>attractive dividend policy<\/strong> backed by a sound financial position. According to disclosed information, VNM paid total cash dividends of VND 4,350\/share for FY2025, equivalent to 43.5% of par value. Of this amount, VND 2,500\/share was paid in advance in 2025, while the remaining VND 1,850\/share was paid on July 17, 2026. As of June 30, 2026, cash and short-term financial investments amounted to VND 26,503 billion, equivalent to 46.1% of total assets, while outstanding borrowings stood at approximately VND 8,455 billion, providing a solid foundation for dividends and investment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif\"><strong>Attractive valuation: <\/strong>VNM is trading at a P\/E of 11.5x and a P\/B of 3.95x, significantly below its historical three-year and five-year averages, respectively. We apply a target P\/E of 12.0x, alongside the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, to determine fair value.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif\">We forecast FY2026 revenue of VND 66,951 billion (+5.2%) and gross profit of VND 27,822 billion (+6.2%), implying a GPM of 41.6%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif\"><strong>Key risks:<\/strong> A rebound in raw material prices and exchange rates, elevated advertising and promotion (A&#038;P) expenses in 2H26, limited domestic growth, intensifying competition, and policy changes from 2027 onward.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif\"><strong>RECOMMENDATION<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif\">We recommend <strong>ACCUMULATE<\/strong> on VNM with a target price of VND 59,000\/share, implying 1.03% upside, based on the following investment theses: <strong>(1) Recovering growth:<\/strong> Domestic revenue is improving while export growth is accelerating. Positive contributions from overseas subsidiaries further support VNM\u2019s return to a growth trajectory. <strong>(2) Margin protection:<\/strong> The advantage of securing WMP, SMP, and sugar prices 3\u20136 months in advance should help sustain GPM in 2H26, despite the recent rebound in global raw material prices. <strong>(3) Attractive dividends:<\/strong> A dividend policy targeting a minimum payout of 50% of net profit, combined with a healthy balance sheet\u2014with cash and short-term financial investments accounting for 46.1% of total assets\u2014provides a solid foundation for stable dividend payments.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":0,"template":"","cate_research":[80],"specialized":[],"class_list":["post-38767","research","type-research","status-publish","hentry","cate_research-bao-cao-doanh-nghiep-en"],"yoast_head":"<title>(EN) GTHTVN RS VNM Equity Report _Defensive Stock with an Attractive Dividend Yield _TP59,000_Oct 13,2026 - Ch\u1ee9ng Kho\u00e1n Guotai Haitong (Vi\u1ec7t Nam)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/gtht.com.vn\/en\/research\/en-gthtvn-rs-vnm-equity-report-_defensive-stock-with-an-attractive-dividend-yield-_tp59000_oct-132026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"(EN) GTHTVN RS VNM Equity Report _Defensive Stock with an Attractive Dividend Yield _TP59,000_Oct 13,2026 - Ch\u1ee9ng Kho\u00e1n Guotai Haitong (Vi\u1ec7t Nam)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(EN) GTHTVN RS VNM Equity Report _Defensive Stock with an Attractive Dividend Yield _TP59,000_Oct 13,2026 BUSINESS UPDATES According to VNM\u2019s 1H26 business results, revenue reached VND 34,996 billion (+17.8% YoY), driven by 12.4% growth in domestic revenue and 39.1% growth in exports. 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