{"id":38004,"date":"2026-08-25T16:17:16","date_gmt":"2026-08-25T09:17:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gtht.com.vn\/?post_type=research&#038;p=38004"},"modified":"2026-08-25T16:17:16","modified_gmt":"2026-08-25T09:17:16","slug":"en-gthtsvn-research_banking-sector_1h2026-earnings-update_aug-20-2026","status":"publish","type":"research","link":"https:\/\/gtht.com.vn\/en\/research\/en-gthtsvn-research_banking-sector_1h2026-earnings-update_aug-20-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"(EN) GTHTSVN Research_Banking Sector_1H2026 Earnings Update_Aug 20 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer\" data-section-id=\"1kt6soi\" data-start=\"92\" data-end=\"110\">KEY HIGHLIGHTS<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"112\" data-end=\"434\">In 1H2026, the banking system recorded <strong data-start=\"151\" data-end=\"178\">7.41% YTD credit growth<\/strong>, while deposits at credit institutions increased by <strong data-start=\"231\" data-end=\"244\">5.02% YTD<\/strong>. Strong credit demand, driven by economic growth, alongside the widening gap between credit and deposit growth, resulted in a rapid increase in both lending and deposit rates during 1H2026.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"436\" data-end=\"577\">The developments in credit, deposits, and interest rates during 1H2026 were reflected in the earnings performance of listed banks as follows:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"579\" data-end=\"2393\">\n<li data-section-id=\"1hrjvmy\" data-start=\"579\" data-end=\"1013\"><strong data-start=\"581\" data-end=\"639\">Credit growth outpaced deposit growth across 28 banks:<\/strong> Total loans at the 28 banks increased <strong data-start=\"678\" data-end=\"691\">18.2% YoY<\/strong>, while customer deposits rose <strong data-start=\"722\" data-end=\"735\">11.9% YoY<\/strong>. Market-based funding sources, including deposits\/borrowings from other credit institutions and valuable papers, grew rapidly and accounted for nearly <strong data-start=\"887\" data-end=\"925\">29.7% of total key funding sources<\/strong>, making funding costs more sensitive to market interest rates and liquidity conditions.<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1hba27v\" data-start=\"1015\" data-end=\"1457\"><strong data-start=\"1017\" data-end=\"1049\">NIM remained under pressure:<\/strong> TTM earning-asset yield recovered by approximately <strong data-start=\"1101\" data-end=\"1111\">32 bps<\/strong> from 2025, but funding costs increased by nearly <strong data-start=\"1161\" data-end=\"1171\">60 bps<\/strong>, resulting in a <strong data-start=\"1188\" data-end=\"1220\">9-bp decline in NIM to 2.92%<\/strong>. Circular 25 and adjustments to the LDR calculation methodology could ease funding pressure in 2H2026, although the extent of the benefit will depend on each bank\u2019s maturity structure, CASA ratio, and ability to self-fund credit growth.<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1rcapxc\" data-start=\"1459\" data-end=\"1895\"><strong data-start=\"1461\" data-end=\"1523\">Profit growth remained highly differentiated across banks:<\/strong> PBT of the 28 listed banks reached <strong data-start=\"1559\" data-end=\"1597\">VND206.2tn in 1H2026, up 19.6% YoY<\/strong>. In 2Q2026 alone, PBT increased <strong data-start=\"1630\" data-end=\"1657\">24.5% YoY and 17.2% QoQ<\/strong>. VPB, VCB, CTG, MBB, and TCB contributed approximately <strong data-start=\"1713\" data-end=\"1754\">87.7% of the sector\u2019s incremental PBT<\/strong>, indicating that the overall sector growth rate does not fully reflect the uniformity or quality of earnings growth across individual banks.<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"10p3lkf\" data-start=\"1897\" data-end=\"2075\"><strong data-start=\"1899\" data-end=\"1933\">1H2026 TOI increased 16.8% YoY<\/strong>, driven by <strong data-start=\"1945\" data-end=\"1972\">17.1% YoY growth in NII<\/strong> and <strong data-start=\"1977\" data-end=\"2011\">57.6% YoY growth in fee income<\/strong>. In contrast, FX income and securities trading income declined.<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1e2t3mn\" data-start=\"2077\" data-end=\"2393\"><strong data-start=\"2079\" data-end=\"2187\">Asset quality remained manageable, although early signs of deterioration emerged in Stage 2\u20135 exposures:<\/strong> The sector NPL ratio stood at <strong data-start=\"2218\" data-end=\"2237\">2.02% in 2Q2026<\/strong>, while the absolute NPL balance increased <strong data-start=\"2280\" data-end=\"2293\">17.2% YTD<\/strong>. Stage 2 loans rose <strong data-start=\"2314\" data-end=\"2327\">28.3% YTD<\/strong>, with the Stage 2 ratio increasing by <strong data-start=\"2366\" data-end=\"2378\">20.8 bps<\/strong> from end-2025.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"1sez3f7\" data-start=\"2395\" data-end=\"2413\">2H2026 OUTLOOK<\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"2415\" data-end=\"3284\">\n<li data-section-id=\"1jqbvxm\" data-start=\"2415\" data-end=\"2599\">We expect <strong data-start=\"2427\" data-end=\"2473\">credit growth to remain elevated in 2H2026<\/strong>, supported by strong funding demand from the economy and policy adjustments aimed at supporting medium- to long-term lending.<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"pbmpf3\" data-start=\"2601\" data-end=\"2947\"><strong data-start=\"2603\" data-end=\"2691\">NIM should gradually stabilize, but recovery is unlikely to be uniform across banks.<\/strong> Banks with high CASA ratios, deposit growth broadly in line with loan growth, and lower reliance on market-based funding are better positioned. Conversely, banks with a large gap between loan and deposit growth will continue to face funding cost pressure.<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"bn914\" data-start=\"2949\" data-end=\"3284\"><strong data-start=\"2951\" data-end=\"3015\">2H2026 earnings will be differentiated by three key drivers:<\/strong> (i) the ability to sustain TOI growth, supported by both NII and NFI, particularly service fee income and cross-selling; (ii) cost efficiency, reflected in <strong data-start=\"3172\" data-end=\"3191\">CIR improvement<\/strong>; and (iii) provisioning requirements and the migration of loans across asset-quality groups.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3286\" data-end=\"3367\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\"><em data-start=\"3286\" data-end=\"3367\" data-is-last-node=\"\">Note: Sector data in this report are primarily aggregated from 28 listed banks.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":0,"template":"","cate_research":[80],"specialized":[],"class_list":["post-38004","research","type-research","status-publish","hentry","cate_research-bao-cao-doanh-nghiep-en"],"yoast_head":"<title>(EN) GTHTSVN Research_Banking Sector_1H2026 Earnings Update_Aug 20 2026 - Ch\u1ee9ng Kho\u00e1n Guotai Haitong (Vi\u1ec7t Nam)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/gtht.com.vn\/en\/research\/en-gthtsvn-research_banking-sector_1h2026-earnings-update_aug-20-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"(EN) GTHTSVN Research_Banking Sector_1H2026 Earnings Update_Aug 20 2026 - Ch\u1ee9ng Kho\u00e1n Guotai Haitong (Vi\u1ec7t Nam)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"KEY HIGHLIGHTS In 1H2026, the banking system recorded 7.41% YTD credit growth, while deposits at credit institutions increased by 5.02% YTD. 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