(EN) GTHTSVN_Sector Update_Update on Vietnam’s Electricity Production in 1H2026_16.07.2026

Update on Vietnam’s Electricity Production in 1H2026

Against the backdrop of Vietnam targeting 10% GDP growth in 2026, electricity demand is projected to increase by approximately 1.3x–1.5x relative to GDP growth. Meanwhile, external risks—including the Middle East conflict driving greater volatility in oil and LNG prices, as well as extreme weather associated with El Niño causing water shortages for hydropower and increasing electricity demand—have made energy security one of the Government’s key macroeconomic policy priorities during the first half of 2026.

In response, the Vietnamese Government and EVN simultaneously implemented a series of policy measures to ensure both short-term and long-term energy security (see Tables 1 & 2). As a result, power generation, electricity consumption, and system dispatch operations remained stable throughout the first half of 2026.

According to EVN, total electricity generation in 1H2026 reached 171.1 billion kWh, up 9.5% YoY, broadly in line with 8.18% YoY GDP growth during the period and industrial production growth, as reflected by the 10.8% YoY increase in the Industrial Production Index (IIP). Notably, the share of coal-fired power rose significantly to 54.5% of the generation mix (compared with 46.2% in the first ten months of 2025), highlighting the timely adjustment of the power generation mix to ensure supply reliability.

Looking ahead to 2H2026, based on the latest estimates by NSMO, total electricity generation and imports are expected to reach 187.5 billion kWh, up 12.3% YoY, bringing total electricity generation and imports for FY2026 to approximately 358.6 billion kWh, representing 11.1% growth compared with 2025. At the same time, the implementation of numerous power generation and transmission projects is being accelerated, with completion expected during 2026–2027 (see Appendix, page 6).

GTHTSVN Comment: The management of Vietnam’s energy sector in the first half of 2026 proved effective in ensuring an adequate electricity supply for economic activities while responding flexibly to geopolitical uncertainties and extreme weather conditions. The adjustment of the power generation mix toward a higher share of coal-fired generation, together with the accelerated development of key power generation and transmission projects, has not only mitigated the risk of short-term power shortages but also strengthened the capacity of the national power system, thereby providing a solid foundation to support Vietnam’s high economic growth objectives in the coming years.