https://gtht.com.vn/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/EN-GTHTVN-Research_Vietnam-Stock-Market-1H26-Wrap-up-and-2H-Outlook_Jul-08-2026-1.pdf

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

In the first half of 2026, the market’s underlying fundamentals generally evolved in line with expectations. However, external shocks and liquidity conditions prevented the index from fully reflecting the improvement in the economy and corporate earnings growth.

Key market drivers in 1H2026:

• Positive macroeconomic performance;
• Strong corporate earnings growth, bringing market valuations back to reasonable levels;
• Stock market reforms and market upgrade;
• New investors participated the market.

Despite these supportive factors, the market still faced several headwinds:

    ₋ First and foremost was the Black Swan event arising from the Middle East conflict, which broke out in late February and has continued to the present;

   ₋ Foreign investors recorded net selling of nearly USD 3 billion in 1H2026;

    ₋Although the macroeconomic environment remained broadly positive, pressures related to monetary conditions and liquidity were increasing.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 2H2026

Overall, Vietnam’s stock market still has substantial long-term growth potential. In the short term, however, the market is facing increasing competition from other investment channels and is becoming more dependent on demand-side factors, particularly investors’ demand for investment and asset allocation.

Regarding the investment strategy for 2H2026, we believe that long-term accumulation opportunities remain available in fundamentally sound stocks. In the third quarter, when second-quarter earnings are announced and the market upgrade approaches, securities companies and blue-chip stocks may benefit.

Nevertheless, investors should continue to closely monitor the market for potential impacts from macroeconomic developments and Black Swan events similar to those seen earlier in the year.